Adlai Nortye Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Adlai Nortye Ltd ADR

ANLNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.07

Intrinsic Value $3.71median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $16.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 77% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-77%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1B

Enterprise Value $995.8M

Shares Outstanding 95.8M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Adlai Nortye Ltd. (NASDAQ: ANL) has undergone a major strategic pivot following the clinical failure of its lead Phase 3 candidate, buparlisib (AN2025), which failed to meet its primary overall survival endpoint in the BURAN trial for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in May 2025. Following the discontinuation of buparlisib, the company has refocused its resources on its early-stage pipeline, primarily the oral pan-RAS(ON) inhibitor AN9025 and the CEACAM5-targeting ADC AN4035. While the company successfully shored up its balance sheet in early 2026 through two major private placements (PIPEs) totaling $290 million and an upfront licensing payment of $8.7 million from ASK Pharm, its pipeline is now highly early-stage. Given that its primary asset AN9025 is only in Phase 1 clinical trials with dose escalation expected to complete in H1 2027, a 'Hold' recommendation is warranted until clinical proof-of-concept is established.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$20.00

Mean target$28.60

High · most bullish analyst$46.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5.0020%

The bear case is triggered if AN9025 encounters dose-limiting toxicities or fails to show meaningful anti-tumor activity during its Phase 1 escalation, mirroring the safety challenges historically seen in the class. Regulatory delays or clinical holds on the IND submission for AN4035 would further stall the pipeline. With no late-stage assets to support valuation, the company would face high cash burn on early-stage programs, leading to a significant decline in market value.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$11.0050%

In the base case, Adlai Nortye steadily progresses the Phase 1 trial of AN9025, completing dose escalation by H1 2027 with acceptable safety and early signs of efficacy. The company successfully files the IND for AN4035 in mid-2026 and initiates a Phase 1 trial. Cash runway remains robust (estimated at over $300 million post-PIPEs), minimizing near-term dilution risk, but the stock remains range-bound as investors await mature clinical data from the early-stage pipeline.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$20.0030%

The bull case relies on the rapid clinical validation of the pan-RAS(ON) inhibitor AN9025. If AN9025 demonstrates superior potency and a wider therapeutic index compared to clinical benchmarks (such as Revolution Medicines' RMC-6236) in its ongoing Phase 1 trial, Adlai Nortye could capture a significant share of the high-value RAS-mutant solid tumor market. Additionally, successful IND clearance and clinical entry of the CEACAM5-targeting ADC AN4035 in late 2026 would validate the company's proprietary RASiCA™ payload platform, attracting further global licensing deals similar to the $230 million Greater China partnership with ASK Pharm.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong balance sheet with approximately $300 million in cash following $290 million in PIPE financings in early 2026 and licensing payments from ASK Pharm.
Wholly owned global rights (ex-China) to AN9025, a highly potent oral pan-RAS(ON) inhibitor targeting a broad range of RAS mutations.
Proprietary RASiCA™ platform combining ADCs with pan-RAS(ON) inhibitor payloads, offering a differentiated approach to treating solid tumors.

Key Investment Risks

High pipeline concentration in early-stage assets following the termination of the Phase 3 buparlisib program in May 2025.
Clinical development risk inherent in pan-RAS inhibitors, which must balance high potency with systemic tolerability.
Long timeline to commercialization, with no product revenues expected for several years.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of AN9025 to complete Phase 1 dose escalation due to safety or tolerability issues.
Significant delay or rejection of the IND application for AN4035 by regulatory authorities.
Inability to secure additional clinical development partners for ex-China territories.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.