Addus HomeCare Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $157.21median of 6 methods · middle span $100-$196based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $110.54Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 18.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Addus HomeCare (ADUS) is uniquely positioned to capitalize on long-term demographic tailwinds and state-level fiscal incentives that favor low-cost home-based care over institutionalization. Despite recent stock pressure and a split analyst outlook, the company's robust compliance infrastructure, strong balance sheet, and disciplined M&A strategy provide a resilient foundation. Furthermore, potential regulatory relief—such as the repeal of the Medicaid 80/20 rule—and market share gains from smaller operators facing federal crackdowns present significant upside catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$96.00 Mean target$134.69 High · most bullish analyst$155.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $92.0020% Persistent wage inflation and caregiver shortages compress margins if state rate increases fail to keep pace. The 80/20 rule implementation progresses without modification, placing a cap on administrative overhead and profitability. Organic volume growth slows due to severe weather disruptions or regional reimbursement cuts. Base CaseCentral scenario $134.6950% Matches the consensus meanAddus continues to deliver steady high-single-digit revenue growth driven by personal care volume recovery and stable state reimbursement rates. The company successfully integrates recent acquisitions (such as HomeCourt Home Care in Indiana) and maintains an adjusted EBITDA margin above 12%. Regulatory overhangs remain stable or transition slowly, allowing the stock to re-rate toward historical multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $142.0030% The Medicaid 80/20 rule is officially repealed, removing a major valuation overhang and expanding long-term margins. Accelerated consolidation allows Addus to acquire smaller, non-compliant competitors at highly accretive multiples. Stronger-than-expected rate increases in Illinois and Texas drive organic revenue growth above historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |