Adamas Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryMortgage REITs Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value $6.64median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $7.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $699.3M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 92.5M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ADAMAS TRUST, INC. (formerly New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.) has demonstrated strong bottom-line momentum, significantly beating Q1 2026 EPS expectations. The company's strategic acquisition of Constructive has enhanced its business purpose loan origination capabilities, and its shift toward Agency RMBS assets supports book value stability. However, the company operates with high leverage and faces macroeconomic headwinds, including interest rate volatility and spread compression. Given these balanced factors, a Hold rating is recommended, aligning with the consensus analyst view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.50 Mean target$11.96 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0020% The bear case is triggered by severe interest rate volatility, widening credit spreads, or a spike in default rates within the business purpose loan portfolio. High leverage paired with a limited cash-flow buffer could pressure the dividend coverage and lead to book value erosion. Base CaseCentral scenario $9.4550% The base case assumes stable performance of the mortgage-related residential asset portfolio, with net interest spread remaining steady. The company maintains its quarterly common dividend of $0.27 per share, supported by earnings, while managing its high leverage within acceptable risk parameters. Bull CaseUpside scenario $11.7930% The bull case is driven by stronger-than-expected net investment income, successful integration of Constructive leading to higher loan origination volumes, and expansion of the high-yielding investment portfolio. Continued robust economic returns on book value and stable dividend payouts support a higher valuation multiple. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |