Adagio Medical Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Adagio Medical Holdings Inc

ADGMNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.27

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.15Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $3.4M

Enterprise Value $20.5M

Shares Outstanding 23.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. is a highly innovative medical device company advancing its proprietary Ultra-Low Temperature Cardiac Ablation (ULTA) technology. The company's pivotal FULCRUM-VT trial demonstrated exceptional clinical results, including an 84% freedom from ICD shock at six months and a highly favorable safety profile. With a clear path toward FDA PMA submission and the expansion of its next-generation vCLAS Ultra platform, Adagio is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the underserved ventricular tachycardia (VT) ablation market. While currently pre-revenue due to a strategic pause in European commercial activities to focus on clinical development, the company's clinical milestones and recent $50 million private placement provide a strong foundation for long-term value creation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$3.00

Mean target$3.33

High · most bullish analyst$4.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.50

Regulatory delays or requests for additional clinical data from the FDA push back the PMA approval timeline. The commercial launch is slower than expected due to intense competition or reimbursement challenges. The company is forced to raise additional capital under unfavorable terms, leading to significant shareholder dilution.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$3.50

FDA PMA submission is completed in a timely manner with approval secured within standard regulatory timelines. The company successfully transitions back to commercial operations, initiating a controlled U.S. launch. Clinical adoption grows steadily among electrophysiologists, supported by the strong FULCRUM-VT data presented at the Heart Rhythm Society 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$4.00

Rapid FDA approval of the vCLAS Cryoablation System followed by a highly successful commercial launch in the U.S. market. The next-generation vCLAS Ultra system demonstrates superior usability and faster procedure times, driving rapid clinical adoption. Warrants from the recent private placement are fully exercised, providing an additional $31 million in non-dilutive capital to fund commercial expansion without requiring further dilutive equity rounds.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Outstanding clinical data from the FULCRUM-VT trial, showing 84% freedom from ICD shock and a low 2.4% major adverse event rate.
FDA Breakthrough Device designation and IDE approval to expand trials to the next-generation vCLAS Ultra System.
Strong strategic backing and institutional ownership, with Perceptive Advisors holding a majority stake.
Highly experienced leadership team and board, recently strengthened by the appointment of Medtronic veteran Sean Salmon.

Key Investment Risks

Pre-revenue status and ongoing operating losses, requiring careful cash management and potential future financing.
Regulatory risks associated with the upcoming FDA PMA submission and approval process.
Execution risks in transitioning from a clinical-stage entity to a commercial-scale medical device manufacturer.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

FDA rejection or significant delay of the PMA application for the vCLAS Cryoablation System.
Safety concerns or elevated major adverse event rates emerging from the expanded vCLAS Ultra trials.
Inability to secure additional financing or exercise outstanding warrants, leading to a severe liquidity crunch.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.