ACV Auctions Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)1.56 Intrinsic Value $23.44median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.43Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 125% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+125%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $1.7B Shares Outstanding 173.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ACV Auctions continues to demonstrate strong operational execution and market share gains despite navigating a challenging dealer wholesale market characterized by mid-single-digit volume declines. The company's digital-first marketplace model, supported by high-value ancillary services (ACV Transportation, ACV Capital, and Customer Assurance), is driving ARPU expansion and improving operating leverage. With a robust balance sheet, positive operating cash flow, and a newly authorized $100 million share repurchase program, ACV is well-positioned to transition toward sustained profitability and deliver long-term shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$9.55 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.00 ACV Auctions faces challenges including a slowing auction marketplace per unit revenue metric, intense competition in the online auction space, and uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Additionally, softer dealer volumes and increased investments in growth initiatives may pressure margins and fail to translate immediately into profits. Base CaseCentral scenario $9.55 Matches the consensus meanACV successfully navigates the mid-single-digit decline in the wholesale market, achieving its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $845 million to $855 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $73 million to $77 million. Continued cost discipline and the execution of the share buyback program support valuation expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.00 ACV Auctions is poised for significant growth driven by its digital-first marketplace, the deployment of AI-powered inspection tools and its VIPER drive-through solution to help dealers source vehicles efficiently, and a commercial rollout expected to scale from 60k units in 2025 to 225k units, expanding its total addressable market and improving operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |