Acushnet Holdings Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Acushnet Holdings Corp

GOLFNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryLeisure

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value $69.83median of 6 methods · middle span $67-$155based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $82.50Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.8B

Enterprise Value $5.7B

Shares Outstanding 59.6M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF) continues to demonstrate robust top-line momentum, driven by its dominant market share in premium golf balls (Titleist Pro V1/Pro V1x) and strategic calendarization shifts, such as accelerating the Titleist GTS metals launch into Q2 2026. However, the company faces persistent bottom-line pressures, primarily stemming from tariff-related cost headwinds (which compressed Q1 2026 gross margins by 220 basis points) and rising SG&A expenses. Trading at a premium relative to historical averages and leisure industry peers, the stock is fairly valued, leaving limited near-term upside. A Hold rating is appropriate as the market has already priced in its steady execution and record-high U.S. golf participation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$95.00

Mean target$102.00

High · most bullish analyst$118.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$95.00

Weaker consumer discretionary spending and adverse weather conditions lead to a contraction in U.S. golf rounds played. FootJoy apparel sales continue to decline due to intense competitive pressures, while gross margins are further squeezed by persistent tariff costs and raw material inflation. Valuation multiples compress as earnings growth falls below consensus expectations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$102.00

Matches the consensus mean

Acushnet successfully meets its full-year 2026 guidance, with net sales of $2.625 billion to $2.675 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $415 million to $435 million. Gross margins stabilize as volume efficiencies partially offset the $70 million full-year tariff headwind. The company continues its steady capital return program, including quarterly dividends and share repurchases, performing in line with the broader market.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$118.00

The accelerated global launch of the Titleist GTS metals in June 2026 captures more peak-season sales, driving significant market share gains. Additionally, favorable legal resolutions regarding IEEPA tariffs lead to substantial refunds, expanding gross margins back toward historical highs. Continued record-high golf participation, particularly among diverse demographics, sustains double-digit volume growth in premium golf balls.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled market leadership with approximately 50% market share in golf balls and 40% in golf gloves globally.
Strong brand equity and prestige (Titleist, FootJoy, Scotty Cameron) supporting premium pricing power.
Consistent capital return framework, highlighted by a stable dividend yield and active share buyback program.

Key Investment Risks

Significant margin compression from ongoing tariff exposures, particularly on imported components and apparel.
Sensitivity of premium discretionary products to macroeconomic downturns and declines in consumer confidence.
Pronounced seasonality of the business, making financial performance highly dependent on Q1 and Q2 execution.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in U.S. golf rounds played exceeding 5% over consecutive quarters.
Gross margin contraction below 46.0% due to unmitigated tariff costs or supply chain disruptions.
Failure of the accelerated Titleist GTS metals launch to generate projected peak-season sales volume.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.