Actuate Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Actuate Therapeutics Inc

ACTUNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.97

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $18.7M

Enterprise Value $14.3M

Shares Outstanding 25.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Actuate Therapeutics is a high-risk, high-reward clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing elraglusib, a novel small-molecule GSK-3β inhibitor. Recent Phase 2 clinical data published in Nature Medicine demonstrated a compelling 40% improvement in median overall survival (10.1 months vs. 7.2 months) when elraglusib was combined with standard-of-care chemotherapy in first-line metastatic pancreatic cancer. While the clinical efficacy and pipeline potential are highly promising, the company faces an acute cash runway constraint, with existing funds expected to last only through July 2026. A speculative 'Buy' is recommended for investors comfortable with binary clinical outcomes and near-term dilution risks, given the substantial valuation upside if additional financing is secured or a strategic partnership is established.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$5.00

Mean target$9.98

High · most bullish analyst$14.91

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The company is unable to raise capital on acceptable terms, leading to severe dilution from emergency equity offerings or a forced halt/delay of its clinical programs. The oral formulation fails to show adequate pharmacokinetic exposure, limiting elraglusib's commercial potential.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully secures dilutive or non-dilutive financing to extend its cash runway past July 2026, allowing it to initiate the Phase 1/2 clinical program for the elraglusib oral tablet in 2H 2026. Clinical development continues to validate GSK-3β inhibition as a viable oncology target, and the stock moves toward consensus analyst targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Successful clinical development and approval of the oral formulation of elraglusib, which achieves higher drug exposure, enhances patient convenience, and expands the addressable market to multiple solid tumors and combination therapies, driving significant valuation upside.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Compelling Phase 2 clinical data in metastatic pancreatic cancer showing a statistically significant overall survival benefit (10.1 months vs. 7.2 months) and a doubling of the 1-year survival rate (44% vs. 22%).
Multimodal mechanism of action targeting GSK-3β, which disrupts tumor survival pathways (NF-κB, MYC), impairs DNA damage repair, and enhances anti-tumor immunity.
Pipeline-in-a-molecule potential with both intravenous (injection) and oral tablet formulations ready for clinical evaluation across multiple difficult-to-treat indications, including pancreatic cancer, Ewing sarcoma, and refractory melanoma.
Regulatory incentives including FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations for pancreatic cancer, which could accelerate the path to approval and provide market exclusivity.

Key Investment Risks

Critical near-term liquidity risk, with the company's cash runway projected to expire in July 2026, necessitating immediate capital raises or strategic transactions.
High clinical development risk typical of clinical-stage oncology biotechs, where early-stage efficacy may not replicate in larger, pivotal Phase 3 trials.
Potential for substantial shareholder dilution resulting from the utilization of the At-The-Market (ATM) facility or future public equity offerings to fund operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to secure additional funding by the end of July 2026, leading to a going-concern crisis or suspension of clinical operations.
Unexpected safety signals or dose-limiting toxicities in the upcoming Phase 1 trial of the elraglusib oral tablet.
Regulatory refusal to advance elraglusib into pivotal Phase 3 trials based on existing Phase 2 data.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.