Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc

ATNMNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.35

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $1.12Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $35.2M

Enterprise Value $435.4K

Shares Outstanding 31.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Actinium Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company pioneering targeted radiotherapies (Antibody Radiation Conjugates) for solid tumors and hematologic malignancies. The investment thesis is currently balanced between high-potential platform technology and severe near-term regulatory and financial hurdles. While the company's Actinium-225 platform (led by ATNM-400) and Actimab-A show strong preclinical and early clinical promise, the FDA's rejection of the Phase 3 SIERRA trial data for Iomab-B's BLA filing has significantly delayed commercialization timelines. Actinium must now run a costly new head-to-head Phase 3 trial to prove overall survival (OS) benefit. Combined with a severely depleted stockholders' equity of $2.3 million as of March 31, 2026, which triggered an NYSE American non-compliance notice, the company faces immediate capital-raising and listing risks that warrant a cautious Hold stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$2.00

Mean target$3.50

High · most bullish analyst$5.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$0.9520%

The bear case is triggered if Actinium fails to secure a strategic partner for Iomab-B, forcing it to either shelve the asset or fund the expensive Phase 3 trial through highly dilutive equity raises. Furthermore, if the NYSE American rejects the company's compliance plan or if stockholders' equity falls further, delisting proceedings will commence, severely damaging liquidity. Clinical setbacks or delays in the ATNM-400 program or cGMP facility operationalization in 2H 2026 would further depress the stock toward its historical lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$2.0650%

In the base case, Actinium submits its compliance plan to NYSE American by June 26, 2026, and receives an extension to regain compliance. The company continues to seek a strategic partner for Iomab-B, but negotiations take longer than expected, keeping the stock range-bound. R&D efforts shift primarily toward advancing Actimab-A and ATNM-400, with incremental clinical data updates in 2H 2026. Cash runway remains sufficient into mid-2027, but the lack of near-term commercial revenues and the necessity of a new Phase 3 trial limit immediate valuation upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$5.0030%

The bull case relies on Actinium successfully securing a major strategic pharmaceutical partner to fund and co-develop the newly required Phase 3 trial for Iomab-B, removing the immediate cash-burn overhang. Concurrently, the company's first-in-class Ac-225 radioconjugate, ATNM-400, demonstrates robust clinical efficacy in prostate and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) trials in 2H 2026, proving its value as a mutation-agnostic, pan-tumor therapy. The operationalization of its internal cGMP facility in 2H 2026 secures supply chain independence, and the NYSE American accepts its compliance plan, stabilizing the equity listing.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary radioconjugate platform with over 230 patents and patent applications, including cyclotron-based Ac-225 production technology.
ATNM-400 offers a highly differentiated, PSMA-independent mechanism of action with pan-tumor potential in prostate, lung, and breast cancers.
Actimab-A (in combination with CLAG-M) has shown high rates of MRD-negative complete remissions and improved survival in high-risk R/R AML patients.
Strategic shift toward an internal cGMP manufacturing facility (expected operational in 2H 2026) to mitigate radiopharmaceutical supply chain risks.

Key Investment Risks

FDA rejection of the SIERRA trial data requires a completely new, expensive, and time-consuming head-to-head Phase 3 trial for Iomab-B to prove OS benefit.
Severe balance sheet weakness with stockholders' equity of $2.3 million as of March 31, 2026, triggering an NYSE American non-compliance notice.
High reliance on securing a strategic partner to fund the clinical development and commercialization of lead assets.
Pre-revenue status with an accumulated deficit of $409.7 million as of December 31, 2025, and ongoing high cash burn.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Rejection of the compliance plan by NYSE American, leading to immediate delisting proceedings.
Failure to secure a strategic partner for Iomab-B within the next 12 months.
Inability to operationalize the cGMP manufacturing facility in 2H 2026.
Unfavorable safety or efficacy signals in upcoming ATNM-400 or Actimab-A clinical readouts.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.