Acrivon Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Acrivon Therapeutics Inc

ACRVNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.55

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $2.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $87.8M

Enterprise Value $46.4M

Shares Outstanding 40.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Acrivon Therapeutics is a clinical-stage precision oncology company uniquely positioned by its proprietary Generative Phosphoproteomics AP3 platform. Unlike traditional genomics-based patient selection, AP3 directly measures drug-regulated intracellular protein pathway activity states to match therapies to patients most likely to respond. The company's lead asset, ACR-368 (a CHK1/2 inhibitor), is in a registrational-intent Phase 2b study showing a compelling 52% confirmed overall response rate in serous endometrial cancer, a high unmet need subtype. Backed by a solid cash runway extending into Q3 2027, Acrivon is poised to reach multiple high-value clinical catalysts in the second half of 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$11.50

High · most bullish analyst$19.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The H2 2026 interim analysis of ACR-368 shows a drop in response rates or unexpected safety signals, delaying the registrational timeline. ACR-2316 dose expansion is hindered by severe hematologic toxicities. The company is forced to raise highly dilutive equity capital prematurely as cash reserves dwindle.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The registrational-intent Phase 2b trial of ACR-368 in serous endometrial cancer continues to demonstrate strong efficacy (cORR > 45%) in the upcoming H2 2026 interim analysis. ACR-2316 successfully transitions into Phase 2 expansion cohorts with manageable safety profiles. The cash runway remains stable into late 2027, supported by disciplined R&D spending.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Acrivon's proprietary AP3 (Acrivon Predictive Precision Proteomics) platform enables precision patient-matching for kinase inhibitor therapies, which has demonstrated a strong 50% response rate in serous endometrial cancer with its lead asset ACR-368. The stock trades at a deep discount (below cash value), effectively pricing the entire clinical pipeline at negative value. Key near-term catalysts include Phase 2b ACR-368 data and Phase 1 ACR-2316 expansion results, which could significantly de-risk the pipeline and expand its addressable market.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary Generative Phosphoproteomics AP3 platform goes beyond traditional genomics to directly measure real-time protein signaling and drug sensitivity.
Strong clinical signal for lead asset ACR-368, showing a 52% confirmed ORR in serous endometrial cancer, which accounts for up to 50% of endometrial cancer deaths.
Robust cash position of $97.7 million (plus subsequent $7.3 million equity proceeds) funding operations into Q3 2027, past key clinical readouts.
Promising early clinical activity and favorable tolerability for second asset ACR-2316 (WEE1/PKMYT1 inhibitor) in heavily pretreated lung cancers.

Key Investment Risks

High binary clinical trial risk associated with mid-to-late-stage oncology assets.
Pre-revenue status with ongoing net losses ($19.0 million in Q1 2026) and reliance on capital markets or partnerships for long-term funding.
Intense competition in the precision oncology space targeting DNA damage response (DDR) and cell cycle pathways.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of ACR-368 to meet efficacy thresholds in the H2 2026 interim analysis.
Severe, unmanageable toxicities in the ACR-2316 Phase 1/2 trial that halt clinical development.
Inability to file the ACR-6840 IND by Q4 2026, indicating platform development delays.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.