ACNB Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $49.56median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $62.30Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $633.6M Enterprise Value $766.6M Shares Outstanding 10.4M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ACNB Corporation represents a highly stable, relationship-focused community banking franchise in the Mid-Atlantic region (south-central Pennsylvania and northern Maryland). Following its successful acquisition of Traditions Bancorp, Inc., ACNB has significantly scaled its balance sheet to over $3.25 billion in assets. The bank exhibits superior profitability metrics, highlighted by a robust FTE Net Interest Margin of 4.46% in Q1 2026, and maintains a strong capital return profile through regular quarterly dividend increases, special dividends, and active share buybacks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$57.00 Mean target$59.67 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Intensified regional competition for deposits forces ACNB to aggressively raise deposit rates, compressing NIM below 3.80%. A localized economic downturn in south-central Pennsylvania increases nonperforming assets, leading to higher provisions for credit losses and stalling loan growth. Base CaseCentral scenario ACNB continues to successfully integrate Traditions Bancorp, realizing projected cost synergies and expanding its commercial real estate and C&I loan portfolios. Net interest margin remains stable above 4.20% due to disciplined deposit pricing, supporting steady EPS growth and consistent dividend payouts. Bull CaseUpside scenario ACNB Corp. continues to deliver robust financial performance, highlighted by a record net income of $15.2 million ($1.49 EPS) in Q2 2026, beating consensus estimates of $1.38. The bank's growth is driven by strong loan production, with total loans outstanding growing at an annualized rate of 8.6% to $2.40 billion, and a 15% year-over-year surge in net interest income. Furthermore, ACNB maintains a highly resilient loan book with manageable past-due loans primarily backed by residential real estate collateral, allowing it to reverse loan loss provisions. With a solid tangible book value per share of $33.42 and a strong Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 14.49% as of Q2 2026, the bank is well-positioned to sustain its premium valuation and support its growing dividend payout. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |