Aclaris Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $3.64median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.26Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $774.3M Enterprise Value $755.1M Shares Outstanding 135.9M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aclaris Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company positioned to capture a significant share of the multi-billion dollar immunology and inflammation market. The company's investment thesis is anchored by a highly differentiated pipeline, including its potential best-in-class anti-TSLP/IL-4Ṟ̑ bispecific antibody (ATI-052) and its oral ITK/JAK3 inhibitor (ATI-2138). Backed by a robust cash runway extending into the second half of 2028, Aclaris is well-funded to reach multiple high-impact clinical inflection points without near-term dilution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$10.00 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0015% Phase 1b trials for ATI-052 show marginal efficacy or safety concerns that limit its competitive differentiation against established biologics like Dupixent. Additionally, clinical development delays or regulatory hurdles for the ITK inhibitor portfolio accelerate cash burn, forcing the company to seek dilutive financing before 2028. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.0060% Matches the consensus meanAclaris successfully delivers positive top-line Phase 1b proof-of-concept data for ATI-052 in atopic dermatitis and asthma, confirming its extended half-life and safety profile. The company initiates planned Phase 2b programs for ATI-052 and ATI-2138 on schedule. Disciplined cash management preserves the runway through 2028, and the stock converges toward the consensus analyst target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.0025% ATI-052 demonstrates superior efficacy and a highly convenient quarterly dosing profile in Phase 1b trials, establishing it as a premier biologic for Th2-driven diseases. Concurrently, ATI-2138 achieves rapid clinical validation in lichen planus, unlocking a multi-billion dollar market with no currently approved therapies. Strong clinical execution attracts lucrative global co-development partnerships, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |