ACI Worldwide Inc Dossier
|
SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $52.31median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$132based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $48.88Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $5.6B Shares Outstanding 101.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ACI Worldwide (ACIW) is demonstrating strong operational momentum following its strategic decision to operate its Payment Software and Biller businesses as two distinct segments. This structural shift has sharpened execution, accelerated organic growth, and consistently enabled the company to outperform expectations. With a robust recurring revenue base (representing over 70% of total revenue) and accelerating demand for real-time payments and cloud-native payments orchestration (via ACI Connetic), ACIW is well-positioned to capture high-margin growth. Furthermore, management's commitment to returning 50-60% of operating cash flow to shareholders via share repurchases provides strong downside protection and EPS support. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$66.00 Mean target$67.33 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures slow down bank IT spending, delaying payments modernization projects. Increased competition in the merchant and biller spaces compresses pricing power, leading to lower-than-expected transaction volumes. Rising compensation costs and operational expenses limit EBITDA margin expansion, keeping revenue growth at the lower end of single digits. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes on its raised FY 2026 guidance, driven by upper single-digit growth in both Payment Software and Biller segments. Real-time payments and merchant solutions continue to grow at >20% rates, while the Biller segment maintains steady transaction volumes. Operating leverage from the subscription-based model drives EBITDA margin expansion toward 38-40%, and the company repurchases 4-5% of outstanding shares. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |