Accel Entertainment Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryGambling Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $11.67median of 5 methods · middle span $11-$13based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.66Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $865.5M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 83M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Accel Entertainment is a leading distributed gaming operator in the United States, offering a highly resilient, asset-light business model that partners with local establishments. By placing and servicing electronic gaming terminals (EGTs) in non-casino locations, Accel captures stable local gaming demand while avoiding the heavy capital expenditures associated with traditional destination casinos. The company's ongoing transition from a pure logistics-focused operator to a gaming and hospitality business—highlighted by the expansion of its developing markets (Nevada, Montana, Louisiana) and the successful launch of the Fairmount Park racino—provides a clear runway for long-term growth and geographic diversification away from its mature Illinois core. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$15.83 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.0025% Increased regulatory pressure, higher state gaming tax rates, or severe macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer discretionary spending at local bars and restaurants. Stagnation in Illinois is not sufficiently offset by developing markets, leading to margin compression and multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.8350% Matches the consensus meanSteady mid-single-digit organic growth in the core Illinois market, supported by strategic location optimization and ticket-in, ticket-out (TITO) technology rollout. Developing markets continue to grow at double-digit rates, and the company maintains a conservative leverage profile of ~1.4x net debt to TTM Adjusted EBITDA. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0025% Rapid expansion in newly legalized or underpenetrated distributed gaming states (such as Louisiana and North Carolina) combined with high-margin performance at the Fairmount Park racino drives significant operating leverage. Accelerated share buybacks further boost EPS, leading to multiple expansion as the market recognizes the durability of the business model. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |