AC Immune SA Dossier - Source-backed chat

AC Immune SA

ACIUNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.38

Intrinsic Value $2.44median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $2.62Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $260.5M

Enterprise Value $233.7M

Shares Outstanding 100.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AC Immune SA is a high-conviction, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company positioned as a leader in precision medicine for neurodegenerative diseases. The company's investment thesis is anchored by its clinically validated technology platforms (SupraAntigen and Morphomer) and a highly de-risked business model supported by major pharmaceutical partnerships. Key collaborations with Takeda (for anti-Abeta active immunotherapies like ACI-24.060) and Eli Lilly (for Tau Morphomer small molecules) provide substantial non-dilutive funding, including a recent $12 million milestone from Takeda and a CHF 10 million upfront payment from Lilly. With multiple high-impact clinical readouts scheduled for late 2026—including Phase 2 data for ACI-7104 in Parkinson's and interim results for ACI-24.060 in Alzheimer's—and a cash runway extending into Q4 2027, AC Immune offers an asymmetric risk-reward profile for biotechnology investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$5.33

Mean target$8.51

High · most bullish analyst$11.86

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5.3415%

In the bear case, clinical readouts for ACI-24.060 or ACI-7104.056 fail to show sufficient efficacy or present safety concerns, leading to partnership terminations or delayed timelines. The retirement of CEO Dr. Andrea Pfeifer introduces leadership instability, and the lack of milestone payments accelerates cash burn, forcing a dilutive capital raise before late 2027. The stock trades down toward its historical lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$8.8460%

The base case assumes steady clinical execution across the core pipeline. The ABATE trial for ACI-24.060 continues to show a favorable safety profile and robust antibody responses, triggering planned milestone payments from Takeda. The VacSYn Phase 2 trial for ACI-7104.056 meets its primary safety and immunogenicity endpoints in H2 2026. The company successfully navigates its CEO transition following Dr. Andrea Pfeifer's retirement, and disciplined cost management preserves the cash runway into late 2027, aligning the stock with the consensus Wall Street target.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$11.7625%

In the bull case, AC Immune's active immunotherapies deliver outstanding clinical efficacy. ACI-24.060 demonstrates robust amyloid plaque clearance and cognitive benefits in the ABATE trial, prompting Takeda to exercise its option early and trigger a low-to-mid nine-figure option fee. Simultaneously, ACI-7104.056's Phase 2 Part 1 data confirms strong disease-modifying potential in Parkinson's disease. These successes validate the SupraAntigen platform, attracting further high-value partnerships and driving the stock toward the high end of analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong validation from global pharmaceutical partners, including Takeda, Eli Lilly, and Janssen, providing over $4.5 billion in potential milestone payments plus royalties.
Robust cash position of CHF 74.8 million (as of March 31, 2026) providing a solid runway into Q4 2027, minimizing near-term dilution risk.
Proprietary, clinically validated technology platforms (SupraAntigen and Morphomer) capable of generating a diverse pipeline of both therapeutics and diagnostics.

Key Investment Risks

High clinical development and regulatory risks inherent to neurodegenerative disease therapies.
Heavy reliance on milestone-driven revenues and partnership decisions for long-term financial sustainability.
Transition risk associated with the retirement of long-tenured CEO Dr. Andrea Pfeifer.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of ACI-24.060 to show significant amyloid plaque clearance or acceptable safety in the ABATE trial.
Negative or inconclusive Phase 2 Part 1 data for ACI-7104.056 in Parkinson's disease.
Termination of key collaboration agreements by Takeda or Eli Lilly.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.