AAON Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.28 Intrinsic Value $116.23median of 6 methods · middle span $73-$138based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $82.76Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.8B Enterprise Value $7.2B Shares Outstanding 83.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AAON's operating momentum is exceptionally strong: second-quarter net sales increased 101.2%, backlog remained approximately $2.0 billion, and management raised its 2026 sales-growth outlook to 55%-60%. The principal counterweight is execution during an unusually rapid capacity ramp. Second-quarter gross margin declined to 24.3%, below the prior-year level, as new-capacity ramp costs, outsourced components, inflation, freight, and price-cost timing offset operating leverage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$135.00 Mean target$143.00 High · most bullish analyst$154.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $135.0020% The timing of large BASX project awards becomes less favorable while commercial HVAC demand remains soft. Outsourcing, inflation, freight, price-cost timing, and underutilized capacity keep gross margin below the updated outlook, reducing the earnings benefit from rapid sales growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $143.0055% Matches the consensus meanSales growth remains within management's 55%-60% outlook and full-year gross margin remains near the 25%-26% range. Backlog declines selectively as record production converts orders into revenue, but customer engagement and new awards keep backlog at a level that supports continued growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $154.0025% Expanded capacity converts the large backlog faster than expected while BASX continues benefiting from data-center air-side and liquid-cooling demand. Higher utilization, pricing, sourcing, and productivity actions produce sequential margin improvement, and AAON-branded equipment continues gaining share despite a soft commercial HVAC market. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |