A O Smith Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $65.16median of 6 methods · middle span $65-$66based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $56.37Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.7B Enterprise Value $8.1B Shares Outstanding 137M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary A. O. Smith presents a balanced risk-reward profile. North American boiler growth, pricing, Leonard Valve, strong first-half free cash flow and a higher share-repurchase target provide support. Offsetting factors are softer residential water-heater demand, a 28% local-currency decline in China sales, lower consolidated organic sales, and two reductions to the original 2026 outlook. The latest guidance calls for 2%-3% sales growth and adjusted EPS of $3.70-$3.85, versus the original $3.85-$4.15 EPS range. These cross-currents support a Hold rather than a directional Buy or Sell. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$59.00 Mean target$69.91 High · most bullish analyst$84.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $59.0023% Residential water-heater demand weakens further, steel and other input costs continue to pressure margins, China sales remain at or below the second-quarter decline rate, and the company realizes insufficient benefits from restructuring or Leonard Valve. Under this case, sales growth or adjusted EPS falls below the revised guidance range. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.9156% Matches the consensus meanThe company delivers within its revised 2%-3% sales-growth and $3.70-$3.85 adjusted-EPS ranges. North American resilience and cash generation offset continued China weakness and softer residential demand, while restructuring benefits emerge gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $84.0021% North American performance strengthens as boiler growth, pricing and Leonard Valve more than offset residential water-heater softness; China conditions stabilize; water-treatment restructuring produces the projected annual savings; and strong cash generation supports the increased $300 million repurchase plan. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |